YouGov poll suggests Reform would win most seats in general election
A new YouGov poll suggests a dramatic reshaping of the UK’s political landscape, projecting that Reform UK could become the largest party in Parliament if a general election were held tomorrow.
According to the poll, Reform UK is forecast to win 271 seats, overtaking both Labour and the Conservatives. Labour, which held 411 seats in a previous projection last year, is now estimated to secure 178 seats. The Conservative Party is predicted to fall to fourth place with 46 seats.
The Liberal Democrats are projected to gain nine seats, bringing their total to 81. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) is forecast to lead with 34 seats. The Green Party and Plaid Cymru are each expected to hold seven seats.
In terms of vote share, Reform UK is estimated to receive 26%, followed by Labour at 23%, the Conservatives at 18%, and the Liberal Democrats at 15%. The poll’s model suggests a 99% likelihood of a hung parliament, with no single party securing a clear majority.
These results point to a more fragmented political environment, with traditional party dominance weakening and the likelihood of coalition negotiations increasing. The combined vote share of Labour and the Conservatives falls below 50%, highlighting the shifting allegiances among the UK electorate.
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